The Agricultural Outlook Forum kicked off on a positive note today as USDA Chief Economist Joseph Glauber told attendees that despite the historic drought, the agriculture economy is very strong. Producers saw a record high in net cash income last year and are expected to reach near record highs in 2013.
“It sounds a lot like déjà vue. You’ve heard this before,” said Glauber of the similarity to last year’s forecast. “But with drought issues, there will be a lot of people watching data.”
Glauber said 2013 forecast is expecting a rebound in yields and record production in corn and soybeans.
Why normal yields? “We have seen improvement,” said Glauber. “The eastern corn belt looks better than three to four months ago. Total drought areas have seen a five to ten percent improvement in the past couple of months.”
Exports were forecasted at $142 billion for 2013, just slightly down from last November’s forecast, but still on record-setting pace. According to Glauber, the first three months of the fiscal year brought $43 billion in exports with China as the top destination. Soybeans and cotton make up two-thirds of U.S. agricultural exports to China.
Corn export volumes are down 37.5 percent, pushing the U.S. to the number two spot in corn exports, behind Brazil. The U.S. had 70-80 percent of that market, but drought and an increased growth in the southern hemisphere has diminished that hold.
Projected planted acres expected to decline in 2013, but corn will be strong and soybeans will be up, stated Glauber.
The 2013 Agricultural Outlook Forum began today, Feb. 21 in Arlington, Va., and will run through Friday, Feb. 22. Focusing on the theme “Managing Risk in the 21st Century,” the forum will feature 25 sessions with more than 85 speakers.
